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"First:" First: Reduce per acre application to wheat, grain sorghum, and alfalfa significantly. Second: Reduce water applied to corn and soybeans slightly, depending on initial starting point. Third: Convert wheat and sorghum acres to a dryland rotation Fourth: Slight reduction in irrigated corn acres to dryland

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"Basin-wide employment impacts range..." Basin-wide employment impacts range from 150 jobs for the 10% scenario to over 600 for the worst case drought scenario. Total employment in the regional economy is over 55,000.  Hence, even the worst case  impact is only 1.1 percent of the total.

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"If actual acres are under..." If actual acres are under estimated by 10%, but are unchanged, then our estimates understate the true economic impact by 10%. If actual acres are under estimated by 10% and are changed,  then a lower allocation level will be needed to achieve the same change in pumping. At this lower allocation level, the economic impacts from a 10 percent change in pumping will be 2 to 3 times what was estimated using certified acres.

"Do results mean that under..." Do results mean that under estimating NRD acres is advantageous to irrigators (lower acres, higher allocation, less economic injury)? No, because if allocation per acre is higher it will take a greater reduction in pumping to comply with the Compact?

"Do results mean that a..." Do results mean that a higher estimate of NRD acres would be advantageous to irrigators (more acres, lower allocation, more economic injury)? No, unless the baseline pumping estimate and/or the required change in total pumping is also adjusted.

"Over the long term the..." Over the long term the real economic impact will depend on how CU needs to change to satisfy the Compact. The same total effect on CU, and thus the same economic impact, could be produced in several different ways.

"Yes." Yes. Actual injury will vary due to differences in application efficiency, uniformity, soils, management practices etc. Those who typically apply less than allocation are not affected at all. Those who typically apply much more than allocation are affected only slightly more than average, because net returns per inch decrease as more water is applied per acre.

"Economic impacts could be lessened..." Economic impacts could be lessened with mitigation measures such as: Voluntary land retirement program (public purchase of irrigation rights) Alternative land uses Education programs to improve irrigation management.

"The 10%" The 10% Scenario Will: Reduce pumping by 110,000 AF and consumptive use by 30,000 AF. Cost farmers $6 per affected acre. Cost farmers $3 per certified acre. Cost the Republican Valley $5.6M, which is equal to $53 per AF change in pumping and $196 per AF change in consumptive use.

"The 20%" The 20% scenario will: Reduce pumping by 220,000 AF and consumptive use by 95,000 AF. Cost farmers $21 per affected acre. Cost farmers $15 per certified acre. Cost the Republican Valley $24.0M, which is equal to $110 per AF change in pumping and $254 per AF change in consumptive use.

"The 13%, 40K drought..." The 13%, 40K drought scenario will: Reduce pumping by 260,000 AF and consumptive use by 113,200 AF. Cost farmers $31 per affected acre. Cost farmers $21 per certified acre. Cost the Republican Valley $32.5M, which is equal to $125 per AF change in pumping and $287 per AF change in consumptive use.

"Basin-wide impacts from the..." Basin-wide impacts from the 13%, 40K drought scenario (most severe) would reduce regional output by 1.5% and employment by 1.1%. Very recent discussions with state officials suggest that the required normal year reductions in pumping may be closer to 5 than to 10 percent.  Drought year reductions likely to be lower also at 5% and 40K instead of 13% and 40K.

"Long-term normal year reduction..." Long-term normal year reduction in pumping of 10 to 15% will significantly affect some individual producers, but will not have devastating effect on the regional economy. Adjustments to meet drought conditions will  be significant but not devastating at the regional level; unless continued for multiple years.

"Crop prices can substantially mitigate..." Crop prices can substantially mitigate or exacerbate regulatory impacts. For example, the effect on irrigators (basin-wide) of a 20% decrease in pumping is roughly equivalent to a 4.7% decrease in crop prices. Impacts on grain handling and farm supply firms likely to be less than what has been experienced in recent years from crop shifts (corn to soybeans) and technology (Round-up Ready, Bt corn, etc.), except perhaps for a sustained drought scenario.

"Land values will increase a..." Land values will increase a little less in future years than they would have without regulations, but an absolute decline in the property tax base is unlikely. Regulations based on percentage reductions in pumping across NRD’s have differential impacts on a per acre basis, i.e., those in the URNRD pay more than those in the Middle or Lower NRD’s.

"Economic impacts will be quite..." Economic impacts will be quite different if: Mitigation measures are implemented. Certified Irrigated acres are erroneous. Baseline pumpage is erroneous. Crop prices are higher or lower.

"There is no easy way..." There is no easy way for Nebraska to meet Compact requirements, but perhaps this economic information can help the NRD’s and the State make the hard choices. ********  Thanks for Listening ********